Conflict and Displacement in Sudan: A Deeper Look

“Sudanese refugees fleeing conflict in the Darfur region cross the border between Sudan and Chad.”

Source: Zohra Bensemra/Reuters via CFR

Overview of the Conflict

The conflict in Sudan, primarily between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has been ongoing since April 2023 and has led to widespread displacement and humanitarian needs 12. The RSF, which evolved from the notorious Janjaweed militia, has been a significant player in the power struggle destabilizing the country 3. The conflict has roots in political unrest, with civilians demanding military oversight and the integration of the RSF into regular armed forces 4.

Displacement Statistics

As of January 2024, more than 7.4 million people have been displaced due to the conflict, with children representing about half of the displaced population 5. The number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) has reached over 6 million, spread across 6,282 locations in all 18 states of Sudan 6. More than 1.4 million people have also sought refuge in neighboring countries 78.

Drivers of Displacement

The displacement has been driven by several factors, including the expansion of fighting into central and eastern Sudan, which are crucial regions for crop production 9. This has led to increased food insecurity, with many areas experiencing crisis or emergency levels of food scarcity 10. Clashes in various states, such as South Kordofan and North Darfur, have also contributed to the displacement crisis 11.

Impact on Civilians

Civilians have suffered immensely due to the conflict, with reports of mass killings, sexual and gender-based violence, and other human rights violations 1213. The violence has strained healthcare resources and WASH services, further exacerbating the crisis 14. The conflict has also led to the closure of over 10,400 schools, affecting children's education 15.

Regional Implications

The instability in Sudan has regional implications, potentially destabilizing neighboring countries such as Ethiopia, Chad, and South Sudan 1617. The displacement crisis is particularly concerning given the surrounding region's volatility, with Sudan bordering several other unstable countries 18.

Humanitarian Response and Challenges

Humanitarian access has been severely curtailed, making it difficult for aid to reach vulnerable communities 19. Aid workers are pushing their limits to reach hard-to-reach areas, but the scale of the crisis is immense 20. The international community's response is critical to addressing the needs of the displaced and affected populations in Sudan and the broader region.

The conflict and displacement in Sudan have created a dire humanitarian situation that requires immediate and sustained attention from the global community. The scale of displacement, the suffering of civilians, and the potential regional fallout underscore the urgency of the crisis. Negotiated agreements and increased international pressure are potential paths forward to resolve the conflict and alleviate the humanitarian crisis

Citations

1. Crisis in Sudan: What is happening and how to help | International Rescue Committee (IRC)

2. Five Questions about the Conflict in Sudan | American University, Washington, D.C.

3. Civil War in Sudan | Global Conflict Tracker

4. Five Questions about the Conflict in Sudan | American University, Washington, D.C.

5. Sudan Humanitarian Update (14 January 2024) [EN/AR] | OCHA

6. Sudan Humanitarian Update (14 January 2024) [EN/AR] | OCHA

7. Sudan Humanitarian Update (14 January 2024) [EN/AR] | OCHA

8. Crisis in Sudan: What is happening and how to help | International Rescue Committee (IRC)

9. Sudan Humanitarian Update (14 January 2024) [EN/AR] | OCHA

10. Sudan Humanitarian Update (14 January 2024) [EN/AR] | OCHA

11. Sudan Humanitarian Update (14 January 2024) [EN/AR] | OCHA

12. Sudan Humanitarian Crisis - How to Help Sudan - CARE

13. Sudan conflict creates world’s fastest-growing displacement crisis: UN aid official | UN News

14. Crisis in Sudan: What is happening and how to help | International Rescue Committee (IRC)

15. Crisis in Sudan: What is happening and how to help | International Rescue Committee (IRC)

16. Five Questions about the Conflict in Sudan | American University, Washington, D.C.

17. Civil War in Sudan | Global Conflict Tracker

18. Civil War in Sudan | Global Conflict Tracker

19. Crisis in Sudan: What is happening and how to help | International Rescue Committee (IRC)

20. Sudan conflict creates world’s fastest-growing displacement crisis: UN aid official | UN News

 

CARVER Risk Assessment: Unpacking the Crisis in Sudan (February 2024)

Download the full CARVER Risk Assessment Report for Sudan (February 2024) as a PDF!

This blog post explores the critical situation in Sudan using the CARVER Risk Assessment framework. We analyze the key risks identified in reports from UN News and Médicins Sans Frontières (MSF), providing a structured and comprehensive understanding of the challenges faced by the country.

In this post, you'll learn:

• How the CARVER methodology was used to assess risks in Sudan.

• The critical points and potential risks identified in the assessment.

• The significance of these risks using a 1-10 scoring mechanism.

Download the full report to better understand the humanitarian crisis, displacement, healthcare collapse, security risks for aid organizations, and the potential for the crisis to worsen in Sudan.