Chad’s Humanitarian Crisis: Floods and Sudanese Refugee Influx Compounding a Dire Situation

 Peacekeeper Insight Analytic Report

M. Nuri Shakoor, SRMP-C

ARAC International | IOSI Global

Description:

This analysis provides an overview of Chad's compounded humanitarian challenges due to widespread flooding and the escalating Sudanese refugee crisis. Key data points include over 1.9 million flood-affected people, 576 deaths, and 681,944 Sudanese refugees. It offers insights on the critical interventions and future risks.

Situational Summary:

Chad is grappling with a compounded humanitarian crisis stemming from devastating floods and a massive influx of Sudanese refugees. The flooding has affected over 1.9 million people across 119 departments, causing extensive damage to infrastructure and livelihoods. Simultaneously, Chad is hosting 681,944 Sudanese refugees, with numbers expected to rise due to ongoing conflict in Sudan. The country is facing significant challenges in resource allocation and response, exacerbated by logistical barriers and underfunding, with only 47% of required humanitarian funding secured as of October 2024.

Key Points and Takeaways:

1. Flood Impact:
   
• Over 1.9 million people affected across 119 departments, with 576 reported deaths.
  
• 43,000 hectares of farmland and 72,000 livestock have been destroyed.
  
• Chad has activated anticipatory action frameworks to mitigate damage, marking a proactive shift in response strategy.
  
2. Sudanese Refugee Crisis:
   
• 681,944 Sudanese refugees recorded, with estimations reaching 910,000 by the end of 2024.
  
• 88% of the refugees are women and children, with 15% having specific needs such as medical care or disabilities.
  
• Humanitarian efforts are stretched thin, with only 49% of refugees relocated to safer, better-equipped sites.
  
3. Financial Constraints:
   
• Despite an anticipated need of over $1.125 billion for the overall humanitarian response, only 47% of this amount has been secured.
  
• A critical funding gap remains, particularly for urgent needs such as food security, health services, and infrastructure repair.
  
4. Logistical Barriers:
   
• Floods have destroyed key bridges and roads, complicating aid delivery to affected regions.
  
• Humanitarian access to areas like Mayo Kebbi Ouest and Mandoul remains limited due to damaged infrastructure.
  

Analysis and Insights:

Chad's compounded crises demand a multifaceted approach that prioritizes both immediate humanitarian relief and long-term resilience-building. The government's collaboration with international organizations like OCHA, UNHCR, and various humanitarian agencies has been instrumental in addressing the current needs, though the scale of the crisis outpaces the available resources. The anticipatory action framework implemented to mitigate flood impacts represents a forward-thinking strategy, but the continued rise in floodwater levels highlights the need for expanded environmental risk management measures.

The Sudanese refugee situation, while not new, has reached an unprecedented scale due to the ongoing conflict in Sudan. The large proportion of vulnerable populations, particularly women and children, presents significant challenges in protection, healthcare, and education. Refugee relocation efforts, although underway, are hindered by logistical and financial constraints, exacerbating the difficulties in providing adequate services. The strain on host communities also raises concerns about long-term socio-economic impacts.

Implications:

Without significant international intervention, Chad faces a prolonged humanitarian crisis with far-reaching consequences. The destruction of critical infrastructure, coupled with the sheer scale of displaced populations, will likely exacerbate poverty and food insecurity in the medium to long term. The pressure on healthcare systems, already strained by floods and conflict-induced displacements, could lead to increased mortality rates, particularly among vulnerable groups. Furthermore, underfunded humanitarian responses risk eroding trust between the government, international agencies, and affected populations, potentially leading to social unrest.

For Chad, the floods highlight the growing need for climate adaptation strategies, while the refugee crisis underscores the importance of regional stability and conflict resolution efforts. Without addressing these root causes, the country will remain vulnerable to similar crises in the future.

Predictive Analysis and Conclusions:

If current trends continue, the refugee population could exceed 900,000 by the end of 2024, further stretching Chad's already limited resources. Flooding, exacerbated by climate change, will likely persist as a recurring issue, particularly in regions like N'Djamena where river levels are forecasted to rise further. The financial gap will continue to impede relief efforts unless there is a significant influx of international funding.

In the next six months, the humanitarian situation in Chad could worsen if logistical and financial bottlenecks are not addressed. As floodwaters recede, the focus will shift to reconstruction and recovery, but without substantial investment, affected communities will struggle to rebuild. Additionally, continued instability in Sudan suggests that the refugee crisis will remain a long-term challenge, with Chad requiring ongoing international support to manage the socio-economic impact.

1. OCHA: Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. (2024). Tchad - Bulletin Humanitaire Sept-Octobre 2024. Retrieved from ReliefWeb.
2. UNHCR: United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. (2024). Mise à jour de l’urgence Soudanaise - Situation au 15 Octobre 2024. Retrieved from ReliefWeb.